1 · THE HYBRID
Each team's points scored and allowed: this season (PRO) blended with last season (REG), with this season taking over as games are played.
2 · PRO / REG + MEAN REVERSION
Recency weights the last 5 games 5-4-3-2-1 after putting a line through any anomalous game. Reverse Logic halves the recent swing and applies it the other way. TM = the average of all three.
3 · 10,000 GAMES
Football plays 11 drives per team, basketball plays every possession. Forecastable Dispersion sets how wide each game can swing. Out come the final score, fair lines on the hook and graded picks.
4 · FORECASTABLE DISPERSION
How much each team's scoring swings game to game, compared with a typical game in that sport.
5 · HOME FIELD
A sport-specific home edge, removed for neutral-site games.
6 · GRADING
Win probability vs the 52.4% break-even at -110 decides PLAY, LEAN or PASS.
PRO / REG
PRO = this season's form. REG = last season's form, faded as games are played.
REVERSE LOGIC
Half the recent swing, applied the other way: the mean-reversion piece of TM.
DFR
Drastic Form Reversal: rematches tend to swing the opposite way of the last meeting.